Liquidity & Technical

Liquidity & Technical

WIX trades roughly $136M per day on the NASDAQ — a $118M block clears in five sessions at 20% participation, so liquidity is not the constraint for any fund up to about $2.4B AUM running a 5% weight. The constraint is the tape itself: a 65% drawdown over the past twelve months, a fresh post-earnings gap on 13 May 2026 that broke the 52-week low, price sitting 49% below the 200-day, and a death cross from April 2025 that has not reversed. Realized 30-day vol at 112% is the highest level in the entire 10-year history file. This is not a value-buy setup; it is an unfinished bear leg with deep liquidity to exit it.

Portfolio implementation verdict

Price snapshot

Beta against SPY is omitted — the relative-performance pipeline did not return a benchmark series for this run (see the Relative strength section). Realized 30-day vol at 112% stands in as the cleaner risk descriptor and is the highest reading in the past decade for this name.

The critical chart — 10-year price with 50 / 200 SMA

The lifetime shape tells the full story: WIX IPO'd in late 2013, ran from $25 in 2016 to a COVID-era blow-off top of $353 in early 2021, gave the entire round-trip back to the $60s by mid-2022, double-bottomed and rallied to $241 by January 2025, and has since spent sixteen months grinding lower with one acute leg down on 13 May 2026 — a single-day move from $75.88 close to $55.32 close on roughly seven times average volume. The current $53.70 is within $1 of the 52-week low of $52.71 and is now closer to the 2016 starting level than to the 2021 peak. The 50-day has been below the 200-day for thirteen months, and the spread is still widening — there is no early sign of a regime change.

Relative strength

The relative-performance dataset for this run returned an empty benchmarks block — no SPY series was loaded against which to rebase WIX. Plotting absolute WIX index levels alone would mislead, so the relative chart is intentionally omitted rather than fabricated.

What can be said in absolute terms: WIX has returned -65.4% over the past year and -76.3% over five years. Application software peers and the broad market have both posted positive returns over both windows in the same period, so on any reasonable benchmark WIX has dramatically underperformed. The relative-strength score in the scorecard reflects this absolute backdrop rather than a charted comparison.

Momentum panel — RSI + MACD

RSI 32.6 is oversold but not extreme — and the chart tells a more important story than the level. RSI has spent eight of the past twelve months below 50, hit single digits on 20 January 2026 (15.3), and the recent 5/13 gap reset it back into the low 30s. The chart shows no bullish divergence: RSI made a series of lower lows alongside price, which is the textbook pattern of a sustained downtrend, not a base. The MACD histogram has flipped negative again after a brief positive spell in March 2026, and the line/signal pair at −6.47 / −5.02 sits deeply negative. Read this as a downtrend in which oversold bounces are getting sold; there is no positive momentum signal to trade against the trend yet.

Volume, volatility, and sponsorship

The 50-day average volume has tripled over the past twelve months — from 0.88M shares per day in May 2025 to roughly 2.6M today. That is not the volume profile of an asset under quiet ownership; it is consistent with sustained distribution. Two of the biggest single-session prints in the window — 8.1M shares on 19 November 2025 and 4.8M shares on 14 May 2026 — both lined up with sharp down days, and the 14 May session was the day after the 13 May gap that took price from $76 to $55 on roughly 11M shares (the largest single-day volume of the past year). The final bar at 2026-05-26 is a partial-session print of essentially zero shares — a data artifact, not a regime change.

Largest historical volume spikes

The top three lifetime spikes by 50-day-average multiple were all event days (the 2017 and 2021 prints accompanied two-digit declines; the May 2024 print marked a +24% up-day). The catalyst feed for this run was not enriched, so the column is left blank rather than inferred. Of note for the current setup: the 13 May 2026 gap-down ran roughly 7x the late-2025 average (or about 3.8x the now-elevated late-2025/early-2026 baseline of ~2.9M shares), so it does not quite displace the historical top three, but it is unambiguously the largest single-day event in the past year and is the proximate cause of the new 52-week low.

5-year realized volatility regime

Realized 30-day vol of 112.4% is above the 10-year p80 stressed band of 64.6% and is the single highest reading anywhere in the file (the prior peak was 105.9% in March 2022). The p20 / p50 / p80 percentile bands of the past decade are 33.4% / 46.7% / 64.6% — current vol is more than 70 percentage points above the median. Practically: option premia are at peak-pessimism prices, ATR(14) has lifted to $3.01 (about 5.6% of price), and position sizing for this name has to be roughly half what it was when WIX was trading at a 50-vol two months ago. A vol regime this hot rarely persists for more than a few weeks — but elevated vol with no positive trend filter is the worst combination for an institutional add.

Institutional liquidity panel

The reader question here is direct: how much can a fund take, and how fast can it exit? All metrics below are computed from the latest 20-day and 60-day trading windows; market-cap-relative measures use the $3.10B cap derived from 57.7M shares at the $53.70 close.

ADV and turnover

WIX trades roughly 4.4% of market cap every single day and 810% of shares outstanding a year — the float is essentially fully recycled eight times over annually, putting this name in the upper decile of US-listed software stocks by velocity. Note that 60-day ADV (2.68M shares) is meaningfully higher than 20-day (2.20M) — share volume has held up, but dollar ADV has compressed alongside price (from roughly $200M earlier in the year to $136M now). The ADV value will mechanically expand again if price recovers, but for sizing decisions made today the $136M number is the operative one.

Fund capacity at 10% and 20% ADV participation

A $1B fund running a 5% weight needs to clear roughly $50M of stock — well inside the 5-day capacity at 10% participation ($59M). A $2.4B fund attempting the same 5% weight is workable but tight at 20% participation, and crossing $2.5B AUM at a 5% position is where this name starts to require more than one trading week to enter or exit. For a 2% position the math is materially easier — capacity for funds up to nearly $6B AUM at 20% participation. Capacity is not the constraint until fund AUM exceeds about $2.4B at a 5% weight or $5.9B at a 2% weight.

Liquidation runway

A 0.5% issuer-level position ($15M) exits in a single trading day at 20% participation; a full 2% position ($62M) clears in three days at 20% or six days at 10%. The largest issuer-level position that clears inside the five-day threshold is 2.0% of market cap at 20% participation and 1.0% at 10% — both very generous boundaries for a name this size. The 60-day median daily trading range is 1.88%, just below the 2% "elevated impact cost" threshold the methodology flags — VWAP/POV execution recommended over at-touch market orders, but bid-ask cost is not a defining friction here.

Technical scorecard and stance

Stance: Bearish on a 3- to 6-month horizon (net score −6). Every dimension scored points the same way — trend, momentum, volume, vol, relative strength, and 52-week position. There is no internal contradiction, no early bullish divergence, no quiet accumulation signature. The two levels that matter:

• Above: a daily close above the 50-day SMA at $74.92 would be the first technical sign that the post-13-May leg has exhausted; a reclaim of the 200-day at $105.58 (currently roughly +97% from spot) would be required to invalidate the bearish trend filter outright.
• Below: a daily close below the 52-week low of $52.71 opens the door to a re-test of the multi-year support cluster in the $45–$50 zone and ultimately the 2016 all-time low at $24.41 in a worst-case capitulation.

Liquidity is not the constraint. A $118M block can be cleared in five sessions at 20% participation, and a 5% portfolio weight is implementable for any fund up to about $2.4B AUM. The correct action for a fund considering WIX today is watchlist only — wait for a daily close above $74.92, or for realized vol to compress back below the p80 band (64.6%) alongside RSI holding above 40 on the next pullback, before initiating. The deep liquidity means there is no reason to anticipate the turn; you can build in size once it actually arrives.